The 143rd Kentucky Derby is May 6th at Churchill Downs in Kentucky and a 70% chance of rain is in the forecast. Finding a good mudder in this group of 20 is nearly impossible. We thank Mike Battaglia, the odds maker at Churchill Downs, for giving us a morning line favorite at 4-1, Classic Empire, but come race day his odds will plummet from that enticing 4-1.
Mudders with potential:
Seaguar Grandmax 60m Clear 0.405mm Hard Flugoldcarbon Leader Line 220522Classic Empire (4-1): Broke his maiden on a wet surface at Churchill Downs in 2016. Veteran rider Julien Leparoux has been aboard for all of Classic Empire’s starts.
Tapwrit (20-1): Also broke his maiden over a wet surface. My concern with Tapwrit is that his head is not in the game. He’s worth at look in a superfecta at this price and on Derby Day.
Scotty Striker Rod Holder - 239-BKScotty Strongarm,30” Boom, W Rod HldrGormley (15-1): Also has a win on a wet surface in California, but a wet surface in Southern California is very different than a wet surface in Kentucky. The only advantage for Gormley is his veteran jockey, Victor Espinoza. Gormley races well in California but the ship to Kentucky is a mystery.
Battle of Midway (30-1): Another California shipper who broke his maiden on a wet Santa Anita surface. Finished second behind Gormley in the Santa Anita Derby, has always been in the money in all of his four races. In a very scattered Derby, this horse deserves a look, especially at this price.
The Real Deals:
Classic Empire has been on my radar (and everyone else’s) Scotty Triple Rod Hldr,3Pcs 0230 Rod Holderssince he won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He’s kind of a sassy horse. He’s been known to train when he feels like it, but certainly shows up for the race. With his veteran jockey, consistent money finishes on his resume, and can run on a wet surface, Classic Empire lands on the top of my list. Besides all that, he’s American Pharaoh’s little brother. So the pedigree is perfect.
Seaguar Invizx 100% Flugoldcarbon 1000 Yard Fishing Line 12-Pound NewSeaguar InvizX Freshwater Flugoldcarbon Fishing Line .009 , 8 1000 Yards-Clear
McCracken (5-1): McCracken finished third in his last race behind Practical Joke and Irap in the Bluegrass, but again, he didn’t need to win because he was already in with his win in the Sam F. Davis Stakes. Until the Bluegrass, McCracken was undefeated, and veteran jockey Brian Hernandez, Jr. has been with him from the first race.Scout Hook Keychain Bottle Opener, Brass, Scout Leather Company
Filling out the Superfecta:
Always Dreaming (5-1): Three wins in a row for Always Dreaming since veteran jock Johnny Velazquez took over, but only one graded stakes win, the Florida Derby, which he needed to get to Churchill Downs. A veteran rider, but little graded stakes experience and no races on a wet track. However, he’s been training well at Churchill and has put in some impressive bullet works since he arrived.
Seaguar Red Label 100% Flugoldcarbon 1000yd 15lb 15RM1000Seaguar Tatsu Fishing Line 1000 6LB - 06TS1000SeaKnight Axe Spinning Reel Full Metal Anti-Corrosion Design 11BB 6.2 1 Smooth
Thunder Snow (20-1):Screen Used Prince of Persia 4 Pieces Leather Chainmail Warrior Horse Saddle This is the European entry. Entering the gates as a multiple graded stakes winner in Europe with extremely impressing speed figures, but has no American racing experience and has ran most of his races at sprint distances. The check mark on this horse goes to the connections and that the fields in Europe are bigger than they are here. The UAE Derby, which Thunder Snow won, had 15 entries. He will not be shy of the 20 in the gate.
State of Honor (30-1): I wanted to make this horse my superfecta filler, but he has one knock: His jockey, Jose Lezcano. Julien Leparoux has been on State of Honor for his last four races, which were stakes races, and in which State of Honor finished on the board all four times. But, Leparoux is also the jockey for Classic Empire. (What a choice?) This Mark Casse trainee gets a definite look and will be taking superfecta money come post time.
Practical Joke (20-1) was doing fine until he got into races with the other Derby contenders then he couldn’t seem to get around Gunnevera, Classic Empire or Irap. He has no wet surface races, doesn’t like the distance or the crowds.
- Shifter Rennen 10v white 305830010 MICROSHIFT Fahrrad
- Stans No Tubes - ZTR CREST - MTB Rim - 27.5 Mountain Bike Rim 650B
- VINTAGE GLASTIK 55 WONDEROD BY SHAKESPEARE CANVASS FISHING POLE ROD HOLDER
- 2-in-1 Bean Bag Toss Game Set [ID 3695798]
- Correction Bit Medium Port Etched with Copper Inlay Roping Trail Riding
- BELL 4Forty MIPS MTB Cycle Bike Bicycle Helmet Grey Crimson 52-62cm 2019
- Cold Weather Sleeping Bag Double 2-Person Outdoor Zero Degree Camping Army Green
- Dainese Claystone S S Kurzarm Mountainbikeshirt
- Emerson G3 Combat Pants w Knee Pads Tactical Trousers MultiCam FOR RUSSIA ONLY
- High Cost Outdoor Wash Basin Sink with Faucet Removable Hand Sink with 24L Recov
- LH209 Borsello da Gamba Coscia 3 Punti Moto Scooter GHEZZI-BRIAN GILERA
- New Descente Strada Endurance Mens Cycling Shorts - XXL
- Pearl Izumi Women's Sugar Bike Bicycle Cycling Jersey Meadow Mauve - Large
- SELLE ITALIA Zadel met zadelpen monolink flow 31,6-350 mm
- Tandem Ny Skirtlegs - TNYSL
- VICTORINOX HUNTER PRO NUSSBAUM HOLZ - TASCHENMESSER 13 CM - NYLON ETUI
- Gordon & Smith G&S Surfboards Classic Rare 60's 70's Original NOS Vintage PATCH
- Irideon riding pants knee breeches girls size xl
- Marker Phoenix MAP 2019 Ski & Snowboard Helmet bluee
- NEW ZEMPIRE TRILOGY HIKING TENT POLYESTER MESH HIGH QUALITY UNBENDABLE HIKING
- PRESTON INNOVATIONS CELSIUS bib brace only
- Scientific Anglers Wavelength MPX Fly Line - WF9F NEW FREE SHIPPING
- 16 gold Bsx Alufelgen für 4x100 Toyota Aygo Cgoldlla Paseo Starlet Yaris
- Shires Dark Brown English Saddle 16 1 2 inch seat
- Tough-1 Professional 15 in. Ultimate Hoof Nipper
- Vintage Silaflex Perfexion surf cast rod 12ft model 76
- 2019 SKI-DOO PRO LINER PANTS 4541321207 LADIES X-LARGE XL CHARCOAL GREY
- Bates Elevation + Lux 17